Can China's national ecological civilization demonstration zones policy enhance urban ecological carrying capacity? Evidence from prefecture-level cities in China
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65514/z5mgsq93Keywords:
Ecological Civilization Construction, Urban Ecological Carrying Capacity, Urban Sustainable Development, Source-Process-End PerspectiveAbstract
The rapid urbanization and economic growth have brought enormous pressure to urban ecological carrying capacity (UREC). In this context, the Chinese government launched a pilot policy for national ecological civilization demonstration zones (NECZ) in 2013, aimed at promoting ecological civilization and urban sustainable development. Based on panel data from 281 cities in China from 2009 to 2021, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation system based on the state-pressure-response model, and uses difference-in-differences model and machine-learning-based causal mediator inference model to quantitatively evaluate the impact of NECZ pilot policy on UREC. Our research has found that pilot policies for China’s NECZ can directly and effectively enhance UREC. Mechanism tests reveal that the policy indirectly improves UREC through strengthening at the source, tightening control in the process, and blocking at the end mechanisms. Furthermore, this enhancement effect varies across regions, being more pronounced in western and resource-based cities.
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